1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	332944	Sobek: 2 Players	Current	495	7.22	5.86	1.91
			Estimated	4,700	7.54	6.97	1.81

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
Construction is underway on a temple dedicated to Sobek. A huge market has emerged nearby, supplied by the continuous flow of feluccas and pirogues along the Nile. Your Guild of Merchants is determined to take advantage of this unbelievable opportunity, and ready to use any means to grab sumptuous goods out of the way of your opponent. Beware, though, as it will be crucial not to have accumulated too much corruption when the time of reckonings arrives. How to play In Sobek: 2 Players, both opponents collect and sell Goods to earn the most Victory Points. On their turn, the player chooses among 3 options: take a tile on the Market, sell a set of Goods or play a Character. When the player takes a tile, they select one on the Ankh pawn’s line and add it to their hand. They then place the Ankh pawn in the line that is indicated by the tile they just took, which determines the choices available to their opponent. When they have enough in hand, a player can sell a set of at least 3 tiles of the same type. These tiles will earn them Victory Points at the end of the game, depending on both their quantity and the amount of Scarabs that they feature. A player can also use a Character to benefit from its powerful special ability. In Sobek: 2 Players, everything is about timing. Planning ahead and analysing which opportunities you offer to you opponent on their next move is key to playing the best moves and winning the game. —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/332944

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Sobek: 2 Players? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Sobek: 2 Players. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Sobek: 2 Players. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	332944	Sobek: 2 Players	1.00	5.86	7.22	1.81	495
1	2020	299607	Capital Lux 2: Generations	0.82	5.93	7.81	2.25	398
2	2017	208411	Unreal Estate	0.81	5.61	6.11	1.50	403
3	2020	297204	Traintopia	0.79	5.67	6.75	1.75	291
4	2014	161417	Red7	0.78	6.71	6.89	1.69	14,019
5	2020	301716	Glasgow	0.78	6.18	7.20	2.10	1,203
6	2017	234621	Tybor the Builder	0.78	6.10	6.96	2.03	1,200
7	2016	206941	First Class: All Aboard the Orient Express!	0.77	6.95	7.44	2.78	5,258
8	2016	198487	Smash Up: Cease and Desist	0.76	6.28	7.46	2.40	1,252
9	2020	312318	Century: Golem Edition – An Endless World	0.75	6.20	7.67	2.04	835
10	2015	163968	Elysium	0.74	6.93	7.22	2.76	9,041
11	2019	265285	Queenz: To Bee or Not to Bee	0.73	5.86	7.11	2.07	542
12	2004	13004	The Downfall of Pompeii	0.73	6.83	7.14	1.85	7,826
13	2017	216658	Smash Up: What Were We Thinking?	0.72	6.06	7.46	2.17	771
14	2013	124361	Concordia	0.72	7.97	8.12	3.01	32,914
15	2020	293579	Totemic	0.71	5.57	6.72	1.43	110
16	2008	36218	Dominion	0.71	7.49	7.61	2.35	83,042
17	2012	107635	Kairo	0.70	5.66	6.55	2.55	339
18	2018	244521	The Quacks of Quedlinburg	0.70	7.69	7.85	1.95	32,910
19	2017	223597	Dance of the Fireflies	0.70	5.52	6.11	2.57	101
20	2008	38949	Córdoba	0.69	5.51	5.63	1.20	180
21	2020	307002	Regicide	0.69	6.41	7.59	2.11	1,462
22	2009	54043	Jaipur	0.68	7.39	7.50	1.48	42,805
23	2015	173346	7 Wonders Duel	0.68	7.98	8.11	2.22	73,405
24	2017	232351	Master of Orion: Conquest	0.67	5.48	4.85	2.50	53
25	2016	205398	Citadels	0.67	6.96	7.30	2.00	10,004

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Sobek: 2 Players while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	332944	Sobek: 2 Players	5.86	1.00	5.86	7.22	1.81	495
1	2013	124361	Concordia	5.75	0.72	7.97	8.12	3.01	32,914
2	2015	173346	7 Wonders Duel	5.41	0.68	7.98	8.11	2.22	73,405
3	2018	244521	The Quacks of Quedlinburg	5.40	0.70	7.69	7.85	1.95	32,910
4	2016	206941	First Class: All Aboard the Orient Express!	5.34	0.77	6.95	7.44	2.78	5,258
5	2016	193738	Great Western Trail	5.29	0.65	8.12	8.29	3.71	34,326
6	2008	36218	Dominion	5.28	0.71	7.49	7.61	2.35	83,042
7	2014	161417	Red7	5.27	0.78	6.71	6.89	1.69	14,019
8	2015	163968	Elysium	5.11	0.74	6.93	7.22	2.76	9,041
9	2009	54043	Jaipur	5.05	0.68	7.39	7.50	1.48	42,805
10	2004	13004	The Downfall of Pompeii	5.00	0.73	6.83	7.14	1.85	7,826
11	2014	164928	Orléans	4.97	0.63	7.88	8.07	3.04	25,655
12	2019	266507	Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated	4.93	0.62	7.88	8.66	2.70	5,721
13	2020	299607	Capital Lux 2: Generations	4.88	0.82	5.93	7.81	2.25	398
14	2020	301716	Glasgow	4.82	0.78	6.18	7.20	2.10	1,203
15	2016	198487	Smash Up: Cease and Desist	4.74	0.76	6.28	7.46	2.40	1,252
16	2017	234621	Tybor the Builder	4.74	0.78	6.10	6.96	2.03	1,200
17	2016	205398	Citadels	4.68	0.67	6.96	7.30	2.00	10,004
18	2016	209418	Dominion (Second Edition)	4.64	0.63	7.31	7.89	2.17	6,383
19	2020	312318	Century: Golem Edition – An Endless World	4.63	0.75	6.20	7.67	2.04	835
20	2013	158600	Hanamikoji	4.56	0.63	7.27	7.52	1.72	13,826
21	2020	318084	Furnace	4.56	0.66	6.91	7.50	2.24	4,425
22	2017	208411	Unreal Estate	4.56	0.81	5.61	6.11	1.50	403
23	2020	297204	Traintopia	4.48	0.79	5.67	6.75	1.75	291
24	2017	191051	Outlive	4.47	0.67	6.72	7.34	3.00	4,043
25	2020	307002	Regicide	4.43	0.69	6.41	7.59	2.11	1,462

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Game Profiles

This plotscores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	332944	Sobek: 2 Players	Catch Up Games	Bruno Cathala	Xavier Gueniffey Durin	Ancient	Country: Egypt	Advantage Token
			Geronimo Games	Sébastien Pauchon		Arabian	Digital Implementations: Board Game Arena	End Game Bonuses
			Hachette Board Games UK				Players: Two Player Only Games	Hand Management
			MINDOK					Set Collection
			Pandasaurus Games					Variable Set-up
			Pegasus Spiele
			Playagame Edizioni

Individual Game Analysis